"Be Realistic, Demand the Impossible": A New French July?
- Marcel Courteau
- Jul 6, 2024
- 6 min read
Updated: Jul 13, 2024
In a surprising twist of history, tomorrow's elections in France could be as significant as May '68, but from an opposite perspective. That revolutionary spring rose with the slogan "Be realistic, demand the impossible," a cry of hope and challenge in the streets of Paris in 1968, when students and workers stood against authoritarianism under Charles de Gaulle's presidency.
Coincidentally, De Gaulle dissolved the National Assembly and called for elections after the protests, returning from a consultation with General Charles Massu in Baden-Baden. In the June 1968 legislative elections, the Gaullist Union of Democrats for the Republic emerged stronger, while the Communist Party and the Federation of the Democratic and Socialist Left led by François Mitterrand lost a significant number of deputies, reflecting the radicalization and discontent of the protesters.
Macron tried a similar strategy by dissolving the National Assembly and calling for elections, but he didn't have the same luck in the first round. The right, led by Marine Le Pen, achieved a resounding victory, putting the left and traditional political forces in check. Today, half a century later, the question is whether the right will take the reins of the country. Are we on the brink of a new movement, a "French July"?
The election day brought a predictable result: the right, represented by Marine Le Pen's National Rally party, won a significant majority of the votes. With 33.15% support, Le Pen emerged as the winner of the first round, while the left, grouped in the New Popular Front, came in second with 28%. Macron's ruling party barely reached 20%, showing a clear decline in his government.
France elections analysis 2024, Marine Le Pen election
Reasons: Political and Social Context in France
What has caused this change? Did the French drink a magic potion from Panoramix or hit their heads and decide to radically change overnight?
France, historically known for its progressive policies, is in the midst of a transformation. The victory of the right reflects deep discontent with the current situation, marked by an economic crisis, high immigration levels, and growing insecurity. These factors have eroded confidence in Macron's government and driven voters to seek more radical alternatives.
President Emmanuel Macron's government, from his first term in 2017 to the present, faces criticism and demands in three main areas: immigration, security, and quality of life.
Massive Immigration and Its Consequences
During Macron's first five years in office (2017-2022), over two million residence permits were granted, a number equivalent to the population of Marseille, France's second-largest city. Most of these immigrants come from North Africa, mainly Morocco and Algeria. Immigration has sparked controversy, as it is perceived to be culturally incompatible with the European way of life.
The cultural and social assimilation of these immigrants has been the subject of numerous studies: many of their descendants do not feel part of the French identity and are not accepted in their families' countries of origin.
The documentary "The French Are the Others" (Les Français c’est les autres) shows that children and grandchildren of immigrants in France, through interviews conducted in schools, do not consider themselves French, even though they were born in France. These migrant descendants are also not considered to belong to their parents' countries of origin. These young people find themselves in an identity limbo, without a clear sense of belonging to any culture, making them a rootless population.
This situation prevents them from developing "a sense of belonging feeling" that denotes emotional and cultural attachment to a place, crucial for a person's identity. Immigrants in France, unable to find a sense of beonging feeling in their new home and rejected in their countries of origin, live in a sort of permanent exile.
This rootlessness has severe consequences. Lacking a sense of belonging, many young people of immigrant origin in France feel marginalized and excluded. This makes them easy targets for recruitment by criminal gangs and drug trafficking networks that operate in many of the "no-go zones" in French suburbs, where police, medical services, and ambulances cannot safely enter.
In these areas, the prevailing law is not that of the French state but that of the strongest: drug traffickers, radical religious leaders, and other local power figures.
Security and Public Order Problems
The lack of integration and consequent rootlessness also manifest in episodes of violence and riots in French suburbs. These outbreaks of violence, often surprising in their intensity and frequency, are symptoms of a disillusioned youth with no clear prospects. The absence of effective state intervention in these areas only worsens the situation, leaving a void filled by criminal elements.
Security is one of the primary concerns of the French. In recent years, crime has increased significantly. Macron publicly acknowledged in an interview that at least half of the crimes in Paris are linked to immigration. The statistics are alarming: increases in sexual assaults (+8%, 10 per hour), vehicle thefts (+5%, 15 per day), and murders (+5%, almost 3 per day). This reality has created a widespread sense of insecurity among the population.
Loss of Purchasing Power
The French economy, under Macron's administration, has suffered a notable deterioration. Public debt has reached 110% of GDP, and the country faces stagnant economic growth. This situation has led to an increase in business bankruptcies and growing job insecurity. The French feel that their taxes, meant to maintain a welfare system, are not being used fairly, as a significant portion of social aid is not allocated as it should be.
The loss of purchasing power has plunged many French people into despair. Households that once thrived on financial stability now struggle to stay afloat. The spiral of debt, coupled with a declining labor market, has eroded confidence in the country's economic future. The perception of an unfair distribution of resources, where citizens see their taxes disappear into a welfare system that doesn't seem to benefit them directly, exacerbates this feeling of economic alienation. This discontent fuels the narrative of a government disconnected from the real needs of its people.
The average voter of the National Rally (Rassemblement National) in France is likely the everyday man, the one who gets up early to go to work. This voter often resides in precarious housing, without the means to buy a house or a car, and his car might be vandalized by gangs overnight. This individual could be in a constant state of exhaustion, struggling to pay taxes that he feels support a portion of the population that, for various reasons, depends on the state. He is a voter frustrated by the insecurity in his neighborhood, facing situations of violence such as thefts and assaults.
Additionally, he might be tired of being told how to live, like the need to follow Brussels' green agenda, which demands having an electric car when he can't even afford a bicycle. This type of voter is disillusioned with the current system and sees what he perceives as two very clear sides: himself, who just wants to live his life with dignity, and the other side, which represents the policies and structures he feels are bleeding him dry.
The Second Round
In this tumultuous scenario of challenges and hopes, France stands at a crossroads that will define its destiny. Rampant insecurity, erosion of purchasing power, and uncontrolled immigration policy weave a tapestry of unease in the nation's heart. These issues reflect deep dissatisfaction with the current state and a fervent demand for solutions that can harmonize the cherished ideals of liberty, equality, and fraternity with the harsh contemporary realities.
Will this "French July" find those who can address these concerns and, in light of the current situation, embody the challenge of being honest and realistic to demand the impossible: Perhaps it will mean recognizing that every policy has limits, that someone has to foot the bill, and that immigration policy, deficit management, and insecurity reduction must align with French interests, avoiding becoming an unsolvable metastasis affecting social and economic areas.
At the heart of this storm lies the crucial need to assimilate and integrate all French people, redefining the values that have built the nation: from education, freedom, and equality before the law to the value of work and sacrifice.
It is in this moment of crisis and opportunity, where, like the mythical Phoenix, the nation has the chance to rise from its ashes and rebuild from the foundations of its deepest values. As philosopher and writer Jean-Paul Sartre pointed out, “reality is not an inert substance that can be molded to our liking but a living force with which we must collaborate to build a better world.”
France faces the ultimate test of its character. At the crossroads of history, as so many times before, it can turn adversity into opportunity, division into unity, and despair into hope.
This is the epic challenge that calls it, and the response to this call will define not only the present but also the legacy left to future generations.
Thus, with eyes fixed on the horizon and hearts steadfast in their convictions, France moves toward its destiny, determined to write a new chapter in its glorious history that has always illuminated the world.
Sources:
Santiago Muzio. Interview after the first-round elections.
"The French Are the Others." Documentary by Mohamed Ulad and Isabelle Wekstein-Steg.
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