Real Change in France? What’s Behind the Media?
- Marcel Courteau
- Jul 14, 2024
- 6 min read
Updated: Jul 16, 2024
"Media manipulation does more harm than an atomic bomb because it destroys brains," and therefore, "I was never aware of any other option but to question everything." - Noam Chomsky.
The media highlights the third-place finish of Marine Le Pen's party as a failure in the recent legislative elections in France. But was it really a failure? How decisive is the victory of the New Left Front? What does it mean for Macron to have finished in second place after his party led the Assembly before its dissolution? And most critically, what has France avoided with these results? The answers to these questions reveal a reality more complex and dramatic than what appears on the surface of the headlines.
When the blindfold is removed, it hurts, but it hurts even more to face the truth without seeing it coming. Reality knocks you out, exposing the extent of the deception because from the floor you see who is who, which unleashes a torrent of emotions culminating in deep disappointment. Sir Boyle Roche said, "Disappointment is the nurse of wisdom." But "If I'm going to meet disappointment, the sooner I know it, the more of life I’ll have to wear it out." - Thomas Jefferson.
"Let’s take it step by step", as Jack the Ripper said.
The distribution of the Assembly in 2022 before the dissolution
The composition of the Assembly was: Ensemble (Together-Macron) with 245 deputies, National Rally (RN-Le Pen) with 89 deputies, LR (Les Républicains, right) and allies with 78 deputies, NUPES (New Ecological and Social People's Union, left) with 131 and various left-wing parties with 22.
The seats won in 2024
First, no party achieved an absolute majority, which requires 289 deputies. So, from there we can say that much has changed to stay the same, and depending on who you ask, for some it got worse and for others better.
El Nuevo Frente Popular de Izquierda emergió como la fuerza con mayor número de diputados en la Asamblea Nacional, consiguiendo un total de 188 escaños. Este resultado posiciona a esta coalición, formada por varios partidos de izquierda franceses, entre los que destacan:
The Ecologists
The French Communist Party
The Socialist
Party Place Publique
Génération-s
Republican and Socialist Left
The New Anti-Capitalist
Party Ecosocialist Left
And, of course, Unsubmissive France, which is one of the main powers with Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The coalition of the New Popular Left Front, although successful in the number of deputies, is an electoral force. Its components, taken individually, won fewer seats than they possess together. This internal diversity raises doubts about the coalition’s ability to act as a cohesive block. The interests and agendas of Unsubmissive France, the French Socialist Party, and the ecologists do not always align, which can make adopting a unified political line difficult. Furthermore, with 188 seats, they still need to make deals with other political forces to secure a governing majority.
What is the weight of the ecologists, Unsubmissive France (LFI), the French Communist Party (PCF), and the Socialist Party (PS) within this new left-wing alliance? LFI would end up with 75 seats, the PS around 65 seats, the ecologists (EELV) around 36 seats, the PCF would have around 11 seats, and the rest of the coalition parties up to 16 seats.
The party of the current president Emmanuel Macron, known as Ensemble (Together), obtained 163 deputies, a figure reached by adding the 102 from Renaissance (Renaissance-Macron), 35 deputies from MoDem (François Bayrou’s Democratic Movement), and 26 deputies from Edouard Philippe’s Horizons, placing them in second position. This result was unfavorable compared to the 245 that the alliance had before the dissolution of the assembly.
In third place, Marine Le Pen's National Rally, on its own, won 125 deputies. This is 40% more than it had in the previous composition before the dissolution (89), despite being the most voted party in terms of popular vote percentage, with 37.1%.
What we won’t find in the French media is that, if we analyze the number of deputies by political force, first is the National Rally (RN-Le Pen) with 125 deputies, second is Renaissance (Macron) with 102 deputies, and third is the left-wing force with the most deputies within its electoral coalition, which is Unsubmissive France by Jean-Luc Mélenchon with 75 deputies.
Considering that on paper it is more likely that the National Rally, with its ally the Extreme Right Union with its 17 deputies, will form a block of 142 deputies..
By percentage of voters
It is important to note that the National Rally significantly increased its number of deputies in the National Assembly. Although it finished third in the number of seats, it was the most voted political force in terms of popular votes, indicating significant electoral support.
The French electoral system is a two-round majority system and "triangulaires" can lead to the party with the most popular votes not necessarily obtaining the majority of seats in the National Assembly. Here are some key reasons:
The geographical distribution of votes: The French system is based on single-member constituencies, meaning each constituency elects one deputy. A party can receive many votes nationwide but not concentrated enough in each constituency to win those seats. In contrast, another party may have a more concentrated support base and win more constituencies.
Alliances and pacts: In the second round, parties can form alliances or pacts to support candidates from other parties to prevent a common adversary from winning. For example, if there is a triangular race in a constituency between a right-wing candidate, a left-wing candidate, and a centrist candidate, the voters of the eliminated candidate in the first round (say, the centrist) may decide to support the left-wing candidate to prevent the right-wing one from winning, even if the right-wing candidate has more popular votes nationwide.
In many small population constituencies, Macron’s voters, withdrawing from the election, supported the candidates of the New Popular Left Front to avoid a victory by the National Rally and vice versa.
This phenomenon explains how the party with the highest percentage of popular votes, the National Rally (37% of the votes), ended up being the third force in seats.
What can be seen in the distribution by districts:
Comparison of the Popular Vote Distribution by Districts 2022/2024
Comparing the results of 2022 and 2024 in terms of popular vote, the will of the French indicates a shift towards Marine Le Pen's National Rally ahead of the 2027 presidential elections, which in alliance with the Extreme Right Union totaled 10,109,044 votes.
The French Constitution establishes that the president appoints the prime minister, and this person must have the support of the National Assembly to govern. With the current distribution of seats, Macron faces a significant challenge in securing governance. Not only does he lack a majority, but he also faces the difficulty of finding viable alliances.
Attempting to form a coalition with the Republicans not allied with the National Rally, who have 48 deputies, would total 209 deputies, still far from an absolute majority. Moreover, the possibility of dividing the New Popular Left Front and forming alliances with the French Socialist Party and the ecologists seems complicated due to ideological differences and the internal cohesion these forces might maintain against an attempt at manipulation.
Recently, there has been speculation that Macron could propose François Hollande, former president and leader of the French Socialist Party, as the new prime minister. However, this option also presents challenges, as it might not be enough to ensure a stable and governing majority.
Another possibility, although risky, is for Macron to appoint a prime minister from the New Popular Left Front, especially from the faction furthest to the extreme left, expecting them to be unable to govern effectively. This could weaken their political position for the 2027 presidential elections. However, this move could be seen as a desperate maneuver and could increase political instability in the country.
Whatever strategy Macron adopts, the result of these elections shows that his ability to maneuver and ensure his influence in French politics has considerably weakened. Instead of being the strategic victor, Macron finds himself in a precarious position where any miscalculation could cost him dearly both in the short and long term.
In summary, while the media has shown Le Pen’s third place as a failure, the reality is that her party has significantly increased its presence in the National Assembly and was the most voted force. On the other hand, the coalition of the New Popular Left Front, although numerous, is fragile and does not guarantee joint action.
"In the depths of winter, I finally learned that within me there lay an invincible summer." - Albert Camus
What has France avoided with all this? Without an absolute majority and with a weakened president, it is difficult to envision how the French, waking up from the bad dream of living with 1500-euro jobs in a tiny room, with a scooter and a dog, sold as paradise, will move forward. Insecurity persists unchanged while open borders suffocate a social assistance system that, to maintain it, can only continue increasing taxes or going further into debt.
However, there is always hope. The French are beginning to wake up, to question, and to demand real change. As Oriana Fallaci said: "There are moments in life when silence becomes a fault and speaking an obligation. A civic duty, a moral challenge, an imperative from which one cannot escape."
The political and social storm facing France could be the catalyst for profound transformation. If voices unite in the sensibility of recognizing and accepting that everything has a limit, and begin to seek growth in every sense, there is still hope for moving towards a better situation.
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